New figures on Romanian and Bulgarian migration show Farage’s forecast was almost twenty times too high

In response to the new Labour Force Survey figures released today (13/08/14), Atul Hatwal, Director of the Migration Matters Trust commented,

“These figures expose the scale of scaremongering by Nigel Farage and Ukip over Romanian and Bulgarian migration.

Farage predicted there would be 5,000 a week arriving for several years. Today’s government statistics show that in the first 6 months of the year, the total rise in the numbers of Romanian and Bulgarian nationals was just 7,000.

By the end of June, according to Ukip’s forecast on Romanian and Bulgarian migration, the number should have been 130,000 – an over estimate of almost twenty times.

It’s also worth bearing in mind that these figures will include people coming to Britain for short periods of work, lasting a few weeks or months. Only those who come for 12 months or more count towards the government’s official net migration target.

The reality is that while there has been a small increase in the number of Romanians and Bulgarian nationals in work in the UK – 4% year on year – the level of migration has been nowhere near the scale predicted by Ukip.

Nigel Farage has been conclusively proved to be wrong and owes the country an apology for his reckless scaremongering last year.”

Ends

Briefing: Analysis of evidence on potential migration from Bulgaria and Romania

There have been a range of predictions on the potential migration from Bulgaria and Romania when transitional controls are ended at the start of 2014. The attached briefing sets out a review of the claims, an analysis of the evidence and a projection of the likely levels of migration.