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Briefing: Analysis of evidence on potential migration from Bulgaria and Romania

There have been a range of predictions on the potential migration from Bulgaria and Romania when transitional controls are ended at the start of 2014. The attached briefing sets out a review of the claims, an analysis of the evidence and a projection of the likely levels of migration.

Analysis of impact of net migration on UK public sector debt

According to the Office of Budget Responsibility , if net migration were ceased, the UK’s net public sector debt would rise from 74% of GDP today to 187% by the middle years of this century (2061/2)

This is higher than Greece’s current national debt (161% of GDP) and higher than at any time in the UK’s history, other than in the immediate aftermath of World War Two.

Based on the OBR’s forecasts for GDP , the value of the extra debt incurred, over and above the main OBR projection, is £4.8 trillion (at today’s prices) .