Briefings

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Briefing: Analysis of evidence on potential migration from Bulgaria and Romania

Submitted by admin on Sun, 08/18/2013 - 11:48

There have been a range of predictions on the potential migration from Bulgaria and Romania when transitional controls are ended at the start of 2014. The attached briefing sets out a review of the claims, an analysis of the evidence and a projection of the likely levels of migration.

Analysis of impact of net migration on UK public sector debt

Submitted by admin on Thu, 04/04/2013 - 21:37

According to the Office of Budget Responsibility , if net migration were ceased, the UK’s net public sector debt would rise from 74% of GDP today to 187% by the middle years of this century (2061/2)

This is higher than Greece’s current national debt (161% of GDP) and higher than at any time in the UK’s history, other than in the immediate aftermath of World War Two.

Based on the OBR’s forecasts for GDP , the value of the extra debt incurred, over and above the main OBR projection, is £4.8 trillion (at today’s prices) .

The Issue

While many people have called for an open debate on migration, that debate has not, in our view, been forthcoming. The debate remains partial, anecdotal and is rarely evidence based. Complex arguments are boiled down to individual emotive examples, rather than a calm and dispassionate discussion of the issues at hand.

A new anti-immigration consensus has formed in politics over the last decade. Public polling consistently shows unprecedented levels of hostility to immigration. In both cases, evidence has been replaced by perception when discussing migration.

The result of this shift is a skewed debate on immigration.

Our challenge is to change this direction of travel and replace perception with evidence.

Migration Myths

Migration is a net economic burden
The government's own figures show, current levels of net migration of 170,000 per year boost annual GDP by 0.34% (source: Office for Budget Responsibility). This growth means a quicker economic recovery and lower debt.
The UK is being swamped by migrants
Today's levels of population growth are no greater than they were from the early 1900's to 1970. Currently migrants make up just over 1 in 10 of the UK population, lower than Australia, the US or Germany (source: Office for National Statistics)
Migrants are taking all the new jobs created in the UK
The truth is that just over 1 in 10 new jobs are taken by migrants while almost 9 in 10 go to British nationals (source: Office for National Statistics).

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